Predictions on the Aug 10 Referendum Revocatorio

Pretty much like everyone else in Bolivia, I’ve been quietly watching as we come up on the August 10th Referendum Revocatorio. To be honest, I’m surprised things haven’t heated up yet. I guess things don’t get really heated up though until about two weeks prior to an event. What do I expect?

1. Chavez checks. Morales will work night and day to build his base. He needs to get as many of his supporters registered as possible and he needs to stay popular. He’ll stay out of anything more controversial than insulting the US and the “oligarchs” (Last year the “in” term was “Elites”). To build support, he will do what any good politician does; give stuff away, shake hands, smile, and kiss babies. “A chicken in every pot” still works. BTW, I expect the prefects to be doing exactly the same. We should see ribbon cutting by both sides. Sidebar - Morales’ going into Montero was not a bright move, but he needs to make progress in Santa Cruz. He needs to get rid of Costas and put his own man in.

2. Mudslinging – and lots of it.

3. The prefects trying every legal and quasi-legal method to stop the referendum – now here’s the twist – without appearing to do so.
- We’ve already seen legal challenges. I’ve been following the debate on MABB and Pronto* over the legality of the referendum. I’d say both sides make good arguments. It’s a shame the Constitutional Court isn’t there to hear them.
- Social movements (this time from the right) protesting and blockading. The protests cannot however be led by the prefects. They have to appear to be “Grass roots” events.

What else, I’m not sure. Honestly, IMHO the prefects lost the battle when the opposition failed to read the Ley Revocatoria before signing it. It is amazingly slanted in favor of Morales. I expect that he will quickly remove several thorns in his side, and just as quickly put his own people in place. They should already have their backs packed. He only has a short time though before he has to call elections, so he will need to move rapidly on his stonewalled agenda items – particularly the CPE. The question is whether the Senate will bend to his will after he removes the prefects. That I don’t know. How much does he gain towards the CPE by removing these thorns (the prefects)?