Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Did Bolivia really do a better job than Colombia in Counter-Drug Ops?

The New York Times and Time magazine need to review Reading for Comprehension.

NYT - "The United Nations estimates that Bolivia’s coca crop increased by 5 percent in 2007 — far below the 27 percent jump recorded in Colombia, a close ally of the United States." New York Times article: Bolivia Suspends U.S.-Backed Antidrug Efforts, 1 Nov 2008

Time - "Bolivia counters that while its coca production has increased 5% in Colombia — Washington's No. 1 ally in the region — it has increased 26%, according to the U.N.'s drug-monitoring agency, without Colombia's being added to the blacklist." Time Magazine: Why Bolivia Quit the U.S. War on Drugs, 4 Nov 2008

I recommend that folks browse the actual UN World Drug Report that these two articles are referring to. (www.unodc.org/unodc/en/data-and-analysis/WDR-2008.html). The data comes from misquoting or misreading the Executive summary on page 8. The Drug Report refers to a 5% increase and 27% increase in land cultivated for coca crops. Land cultivated does not equal crops produced. In Colombia where the AREA of land under cultivation expanded by 27%, the newly cultivated land turns out to be a very poor yielding area. Due to the poor yield and successful cooperative eradication efforts, potential cocaine production potential was actually down 2% from 610 to 600 metric tons (section 3.1.3 page 237).

As to Bolivia, Section 1.3 of the report covers general trends in the Coca / cocaine market while section 3.1.2 gives the statistical analysis for Bolivia. Both coca cultivation and coca production are most definitely on the rise and have been throughout the Morales presidency. In fact, there has been a 30% RISE in potential cocaine production from 2005 to 2007 from 80 metric tons in 2005 to 94 mt in 2006 to 104 mts in 2007(see the chart at the bottom of page 234). During that same 2 year period, Colombia saw more than a six percent decrease from 640 to 600 metric tons. (See the chart at the top of page 239.)